A look into the numbers for each matchup in Round 1 of the Western Conference Playoff games
Colorado Avalanche (1) vs Seattle Kraken (WC1)
Prediction: COL
Game 1 Win Probability
COL: 65.0%
SEA: 35.0%
Colorado's power is no secret, as they finished in the top 5 of the Power Rankings after starting the season's first few months around the league average. Alexander Georgiev is rock solid in net as he finished tied for first in the league in Wins, while Nathan MacKinnon ended the Regular Season with a hat trick.
All that said, the Kraken were able to hold the Avs to considerably low SOG in their matchups this season so an early goal from Seattle could be the difference in this series.
Date
Home Team
Away Team
Final Score
Win Probabilities
10-21-2022
SEA
COL
3:6
54.7% : 45.3%
01-21-2023
SEA
COL
1:2 (SO)
56.1% : 43.9%
03-05-2023
COL
SEA
2:3 (OT)
51.6% : 48.4%
Though the scoring "star power" may lean in Colorado, Seattle scores plenty as they finished the season tied for 4th in Goals per Game at 3.52. The dangerous part of Colorado's scoring game is their Powerplay Effectiveness, as they stand at 24.2%, 6th in the league
The #GoAvsGo wrap up their season 8-1-1 in their final 10 GP, lead primarily by their star scorers
While they are extremely effective in scoring, Colorado leans on their players very heavily for minutes each game, as Cale Makar finished his regular season averaging 26.4 minutes per game
Dallas Stars (2) vs Minnesota Wild (3)
Prediction: DAL
Game 1 Win Probability
DAL: 61.1%
MIN: 38.9%
Both teams ended on high notes as their Project 94 Rating trended upwards in the final months of the season. Though each team won twice in the matchups this year, Dallas was able to hold Minnesota to at or below their average shot attempts 3 of the 4 games and was able to outshoot them in those same games.
Date
Home Team
Away Team
Final Score
Win Probabilities
12-04-2022
DAL
MIN
5:6 (SO)
53.2% : 46.8%
12-29-2022
MIN
DAL
1:4
58.1% : 41.9%
02-08-2023
DAL
MIN
4:1
52.8% : 47.2%
02-17-2023
MIN
DAL
2:1 (SO)
50.1% : 49.9%
The Wild will not have Joel Erikkson Ek for at least the first few games of Round 1, and the Stars certainly have strong players from the Face-off circle, as Jamie Benn, Luke Glendening and Tyler Seguin are all 54%+.
While Minnesota has incredible scoring skill in Kirill Kaprizov, the Stars have average more Goals per Game and ranked 7th in the league in Goals per Game at 3.43, while the Wild averaged 2.91, 23rd in the league. Kaprizov's top has certainly produced and the rise of Matthew Boldy has added some much needed goal scoring urgency
Kirill Kaprizov: 40G, 35A, 75P
Mats Zuccarello: 22G, 45A, 67P
Matthew Boldy: 31G, 32A, 63P
Joel Eriksson Ek: 23G, 37A, 60P
Vegas Golden Knights (1) vs Winnipeg Jets (WC2)
Prediction: VGK
Game 1 Win Probability
VGK: 59.0%
WPJ: 41.0%
The Golden Knights swept this series in the regular season and while one game went into OT, the Golden Knights outshot the Jets 48-24 SOG that game. While the Jets were able to slow their rating decline in the last month of the season to clinch the playoff spot, they will need to return to their mid-season form in order to compete.
Date
Home Team
Away Team
Final Score
Win Probabilities
10-20-2022
VGK
WPJ
5:2
53.0% : 47.0%
10-30-2022
VGK
WPJ
2:1 (OT)
60.4% : 39.6%
12-13-2022
WPJ
VGK
5:6
58.7% : 41.3%
Though Winnipeg and Vegas are roughly even in Goals Against per Game at 2.7, the Golden Knights rank 14th in Goals For per Game compared to the Jets who are 21st in the league. It is a subtle difference, but one goal is all it takes in the playoffs and the Jets have trended down in recent games in Goals per Game and SOG For
Edmonton Oilers (2) vs Los Angeles Kings (3)
Prediction: EDM
Game 1 Win Probability
EDM: 63.7%
LAK: 36.3%
This is perhaps the most
Date
Home Team
Away Team
Final Score
Win Probabilities
11-16-2022
EDM
LAK
1:3
51.0% : 49.0%
12-12-2022
LAK
EDM
6:3
54.8% : 45.2%
03-30-2023
EDM
LAK
2:0
59.0% : 41.0%
04-04-2023
LAK
EDM
1:3
50.5% : 49.5%
If this matchup is anything like the regular season, this series is going to be as exciting as any. Each team took a home and away game this year vs the other, but the Oilers really figured out their winning system in the later part of this year. Edmonton ended the seaon 9-0-1, led by their star players in Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
Connor McDavid finished the regular season on a 16 game point streak, recording 64 goals, 89 assists and 153 points. But right behind him at number 2 in the league for points was Leon Draisaitl with 52 goals, 76 assists, and 128 points.The Kings will certainly have their hands full trying to contain the generational talent on the Oilers.
The #LetsGoOilers wrap up their regular season on fire:
