Playoff Preview: Round 2 (Part II)

Carolina Hurricanes (1) vs New Jersey Devils (2)

Prediction: CAR

Game 1 Win Probability

CAR: 51.7%

NJD: 48.3%

Per the story of the NHL, the away team

Date	Home Team	Away Team	Final Score	Win Probabilities
12-20-2022	CAR	NJD	4:1	58.9% : 41.1%
01-01-2023	NJD	CAR	4:5	47.0% : 53.0%
01-10-2023	CAR	NJD	3:5	54.1% : 45.9%
03-12-2023	NJD	CAR	3:0	50.7% : 49.3%

Each team took 2 games in the regular season series between the Devils and Hurricanes. The Hurricanes, in the playoffs, averaged 6 more SOG per Game than the Devils and allowed 3.8 less shot attempts. And while it took the first two games for the Devils to find their form they had 35+ SOG in games 5 and 6, scoring 10 in the final 3 games finishing the series. The Hurricanes averaged 2.7 goals and 68.5 shot attempts per game in the regular season.

As the Devils allowed 55.5 Shot Attempts per game in round 1, the Hurricanes may have a slight edge given how many SOG they generate, how often they capitalize, and how many chances the Devils have allowed these playoffs

If the Devils want to take advantage of their scoring chances and defeat the Hurricanes, the Devils will need to look to stars like Jack Hughes, Jesper Bratt, and Timo Meier to increase their scoring rates as they have decreased their Points per 60 these playoffs

Vegas Golden Knights (1) vs Edmonton Oilers (2)

Prediction: EDM

Game 1 Win Probability

VGK: 57.9%

EDM: 42.1%

Win probabilities are close for Game 1, indicating home ice advantage may not be a factor for the Vegas Golden Knights. These are two high scoring teams with stars like Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, and Jack Eichel. An interesting pattern between these two from the regular season, the underdog won each of the four matchups between the two.

Date	Home Team	Away Team	Final Score	Win Probabilities
11-19-2022	EDM	VGK	4:3 (OT)	46.3% : 53.7%
01-14-2023	VGK	EDM	3:4	64.4% : 35.6%
03-25-2023	EDM	VGK	3:4 (OT)	64.4% : 35.6%
03-28-2023	VGK	EDM	4:7	71.2% : 28.8%

Edmonton was highest scoring team in the regular season with 3.96 goals per game, while Vegas 14 in the league with 3.25 goals per game. The Oilers have continued that trend into the playoffs, averaging 4.2 goals per game in Round 1, but the Knights are not too far behind with 3.8 goals per game (3rd in the league). A difference could be Edmonton's difference, which has averaged more goals against per game for the entire season

Key Scorers:

EDM Players

Connor McDavid: 6GP, 3G, 7A, 10P, 10.7 SOG/60

Leon Draisaitl: 6GP, 7G, 4A, 11P, 10.5 SOG/60

Evan Bouchard: 6GP, 2G, 8A, 10P, 5.6 SOG/60

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins: 6GP, 0G, 4A, 4P, 5.9 SOG/60

VGK Players

Jack Eichel: 5GP, 3G, 2A, 5P, 9.8 SOG/60

Mark Stone: 5GP, 3G, 5A, 8P, 6.5 SOG/60

Jonathan Marchessault: 5GP, 0G, 2A, 2P, 8.3 SOG/60

William Karlsson: 5GP, 4G, 1A, 5P, 7.4 SOG/60