Playoff Preview: Round 2 (Part I)

Dallas Stars (2) vs Seattle Kraken (WC1)

Prediction: DAL

Game 1 Win Probability

COL: 61.6%

SEA: 38.4%

Seattle took down the reigning Stanley Cup Champs in 7 games, Game 7 in Colorado, and while they were outshot in the series 210-233, the Kraken have shown that they could be resilient with a great goaltending.

Date	Home Team	Away Team	Final Score	Win Probabilities
03-11-2023	SEA	DAL	3:4 (OT)	70.0% : 30.0%
03-13-2023	SEA	DAL	2:5	51.6% : 48.4%
03-21-2023	DAL	SEA	4:5 (OT)	53.2% : 46.8%

The away team took every game in the regular season (Dallas took the series 2-1) and the team that had more SOG won each game, which isn't as much a trend in the playoffs but a factor nonetheless. The Kraken had a hard time limiting the SOG of the Avalanche, but made their chances count through high shot selection from Jaden Schwartz (59.6% of Shot Attempts on Net) and Ryan Donato (71.4%)

Dallas players stepped up their shot attempts in the playoffs so far, as Tyler Seguin, Roope Hintz and Wyatt Johnston are all net positive in the difference between Regular Season and Playoff Shot Attempts per 60. But of the 3 games last series where Dallas was outshot (by SOG), they were 3-0-0.

Dallas especially shows the edge on faceoffs, as the top 3 for Seattle had a rough time in Round 1, while Dallas proved to be better from the dot against Minnesota. This will factor strongly into the Kraken's ability to possess the puck when they don't generate many SOG on aggregate.

Toronto Maple Leafs (2) vs Florida Panthers (3)

Prediction: TOR

Game 1 Win Probability

TOR: 63.3%

FLA: 36.7%

The Leafs and the Panthers both picked up their game in the back half of the season, especially as Florida faught for their playoff spot.

Date	Home Team	Away Team	Final Score	Win Probabilities
01-17-2023	TOR	FLA	5:4 (OT)	58.4% : 41.6%
03-23-2023	FLA	TOR	2:6	47.4% : 52.6%
03-29-2023	TOR	FLA	2:3 (OT)	60.4% : 39.6%
04-10-2023	FLA	TOR	1:2 (OT)	55.9% : 44.1%

The Leafs were not always able to generate a ton of chances against the gritty Tampa Bay Lightning, but they were able to win by capitalizing on scoring chances. Similarly, the Panthers found ways to win despite giving up high amounts of SOG to the Presidents' Trophy winners. Throughout the Regular Season, the Panthers consistently had a higher Shot Attempts per Game, so expect Florida to come out throwing pucks towards the net.

Most Players on Toronto outperformed their Points per 60 from the regular season in Round 1 so while they did not get nearly as many SOG per 60, they are ready to score when they have to.

Mitch Marner: 6GP, 2G, 9A, 11P, 6.8 SOG/60

Auston Matthews: 6GP, 5G, 4A, 9P, 10.5 SOG/60

Morgan Rielly: 6GP, 3G, 5A, 8P, 5.0 SOG/60

John Tavares: 6GP, 4G, 3A, 7P, 11.3 SOG/60

The Panthers will look to Barkov and Reinhart to score on their SOG as they generate chances as seen above but are below their Regular Season Points per 60

Matthew Tkachuk: 7GP, 5G, 6A, 11P, 8.6 SOG/60

Carter Verhaeghe: 7GP, 2G, 6A, 8P, 8.5 SOG/60

Brandon Montour: 7GP, 5G, 3A, 8P, 7.6 SOG/60

Aleksander Barkov: 7GP, 1G, 5A, 6P, 7.5 SOG/60