Playoff Preview: Conference Finals

Correction: An earlier version stated that the away team won every game regular season matchup between the Hurricanes and Panthers, that is not accurate. The away team won the third and final meeting of the regular season between the two teams.

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Eastern Conference Finals: Carolina Hurricanes (2) vs Florida Panthers (WC2)

Prediction: CAR

Game 1 Win Probability

CAR: 55.520%

FLA: 44.480%

Carolina is a solid 20+ points ahead of Florida in the power rankings, but that is due to where Florida started at the beginning of the playoffs. Defeating a record setting Boston team and the highly talented Maple Leafs is no small feat and helped them jump in the rankings. Moreover, the Panthers were on an impressive run as they entered the postseason.

Date	Home Team	Away Team	Final Score	Win Probabilities
11-09-2022	FLA	CAR	3:0	49.3% : 50.7%
12-30-2022	CAR	FLA	4:0	54.4% : 45.6%
04-13-2023	FLA	CAR	4:6	54.4% : 45.6%

Carolina averaged 4.8 goals per game in Round 1 and but just 2.7 goals per game. Though they actually produced more shots on goal per game in the 2nd round, their point production did not necessary come from their main scorers, as Aho and Burns (78 and 68 points in the regular season, respectively) averaged fewer points per 60 in the 2nd round than the 1st round. Jordan Martinook stepped up and led the team in points with 3 goals and 7 assists).

Florida, for the most part, remained constant in their shot production, averaging 30.8 SOG per game in Round 1 and 32.3 SOG per game in Round 2. They were able to average 2.8 goals per game against a Boston team that allowed just 2.1 goals per game in the regular season (league-leading).However, Florida has allowed the second most shots per game in the playoffs, 35.25.

Luckily, Sergei Bobrovsky has been able to step up in the 2nd round. In the 1st round of the playoffs, Bobrovsky's GAA and Save % were 3.94 and .891, respectively. But in Round 2, he moved his GAA to 1.89 and save percentage to .943, with 5 games in each round and facing 18 more shots in the 2nd round.

Western Conference Finals: Vegas Golden Knights (1) vs Dallas Stars (2)

Prediction: DAL

Game 1 Win Probability

VGK: 55.692%

DAL: 44.308%

The Stars beat the Golden Knights in all 3 regular season matchups this year, though 2 required shootouts, despite Vegas being the higher rated team most of the season. In the regular season, the Stars averaged 3.4 goals per game and 2.6 goals against per game, while the Golden Knights averaged 3.3 goals per game and 2.7 goals against. Similarly, Dallas averaged 31.9 SOG to Vegas' 31.4 and allowed 29.2 SOG per game, to Vegas' 31.4. An interesting note is that while Vegas averaged more shot attempts each game, they also blocked more shots per game. It will be interesting if the skills of Roope Hintz and Wyatt Johnston can get those chances on net instead of blocked by defenders.

Date	Home Team	Away Team	Final Score	Win Probabilities
01-16-2023	VGK	DAL	0:4	53.9% : 46.1%
02-25-2023	VGK	DAL	2:3 (SO)	63.4% : 36.6%
04-08-2023	DAL	VGK	2:1 (SO)	53.8% : 46.2%

The Golden Knights averaged 3.7 goals per game and 3.8 goals per game in rounds 1 and 2 of the playoffs, facing a gritty Winnipeg defense that only allowed 2.7 goals per game in the regular season. Their defense, though, was tested in round 2 against a high scoring Edmonton and allowed 30.8 shots and 2.8 goals per game. The increased performance of Marchessault, whose natural hat trick in game 6 was a difference maker, and Eichel throughout the playoffs must continue as most of their team has decerased their Points per 60 in the postseason.

Roope Hintz, Joe Pavelski and Wyatt Johnston found their scoring rhythm in Round 2, while the Dallas Stars' defense has put in a decent workload this playoffs, with Heiskanen averaging 27.6 minutes per game (round 2) and Suter, Lindell and Hakanpaa all averaging 20+ minutes in the playoffs as well.

Behind the Dallas skaters is Jake Oettinger, who in the 2nd round of the playoffs found his rhythm, decreasing his GAA from 3.5 to 2.01 from the first round and increasing his save percentage by a little over 5%.

Adin Hill, for the Vegas side, stepped up after Laurent Brossoit exited in Round 2 due to injury and made 38 saves in Game 6. With both teams generating plenty of chances and outscoring their opponents' average goals against per game, the goaltending of Oettinger and Hill be a huge factor in deciding a winner.