Game Previews: December 27th, 2023

The NHL is back tonight with 14 games of action. Though there are plenty of stars and storylines to watch, below are previews for 3 games that break down each head-to head-matchup as told by the numbers.

Matchups for December 27th, 2023

Home Team	Home Win Probability	Away Team	Away Win Probability
Tampa Bay Lightning	54.2%	Florida Panthers	45.8%
New York Rangers	68.0%	Washington Capitals	32.0%
Toronto Maple Leafs	65.4%	Ottawa Senators	34.6%
New Jersey Devils	67.8%	Columbus Blue Jackets	32.2%
New York Islanders	57.2%	Pittsburgh Penguins	42.8%
Buffalo Sabres	44.7%	Boston Bruins	55.3%
St. Louis Blues	41.5%	Dallas Stars	58.5%
Minnesota Wild	65.7%	Detroit Red Wings	34.3%
Nashville Predators	66.6%	Carolina Hurricanes	33.4%
Arizona Coyotes	48.4%	Colorado Avalanche	51.6%
Chicago Blackhawks	23.1%	Winnipeg Jets	76.9%
Calgary Flames	60.9%	Seattle Kraken	39.1%
Anaheim Ducks	34.9%	Vegas Golden Knights	65.1%
Los Angeles Kings	76.0%	San Jose Sharks	24.0%

Arizona Coyotes vs Colorado Avalanche

It's hard to ignore Nathan MacKinnon's recent surge, now on an 18 game point streak and 2nd in the league with 54 points (3 points behind Nikita Kucherov). While there hasn't necessarily been a jump in scoring team-wide, there certainly has been more offense. In the last 10 games, the Avs have 41 more shots on goal than the previous 10 games and 56 more shot attempts.

While both teams allow close to the same goals per game (ARI: 2.88, COL: 3.03), this game could come down to goaltending. Alexandar Georgiev, though he has won 3 of his last 4 starts for Colorado, has allowed 10 goals in those games. Karl Vejmelka, starting tonight for the Coyotes, has won his last 3 starts with back to back shutouts in the first 2, and only allowed 6 goals in his last 4 games. The hosting team will have to rely on Clayton Keller and Matias Maccelli, who lead the team in points with 30 (12G/18A) and 24 (6G, 18A).

Detroit Red Wings vs Minnesota Wild

The Red Wings won convincingly last time these two teams met a month ago, highlighted by a 4 point night from Shayne Gostisbehere and 2 goals from David Perron in the 4-1 victory. The Wild certainly would have hoped to see their play rise since then, but they sit in 7th place in the Western Division, though just 2 points back from a Wild Card playoff spot. Both teams have seen a dip in performance, as the Wild have lost 3 straight and the Red Wings have dropped their scoring in the last 10 games.

While both teams are in the bottom half of the league in unblocked shot attempts per game, the Red Wings, after a strong start to the season, are still 4th in the league in goals per game (3.53). The Wild are favored in this game, especially with home ice advantage, but since both teams take almost the same amount of penalties per game (Wild are 3rd and Red Wings are 5th in the league) and have similar scoring and shooting depths, this game could be a wide open, high scoring matchup.

New York Rangers vs Washington Capitals

Sitting at #2 in the NHL standings and #1 in our Power Rankings, the Rangers look to produce a better result than the last time they played the Capitals, losing 4-0 in what is now just 1 of their 8 regulation loss this year. New York certainly has the talent to score in this matchup, with Mika Zibanejad on a 7 game point streak (7 goals and 6 assists), Artemi Panarin tied for 5th in the league in points (44 points), and Chris Kreider 12th in scoring (17 goals). Zibenejad has increased his points per game by .18 in the last 5 games, after going the first 20 games of the season with 10 even strength points (7G/3A).

The Capitals will have to generate more chances than usual to keep up with the Rangers' scoring. While they've had 30 more unblocked shot attempts in the last 10 games than the previous 10, they are still ranked 28th in unblocked shot attempts per game (28.16). And though they allow a similar amount as the Rangers, they average a net negative shot attempt differential. This Metropolitan Division rivalry with always be a great hockey game, but the Capitals will need to step up both sides of the puck in New York tonight.