A deeper dive into the numbers for each Eastern Conference matchup of Round 1 of the Playoffs
Boston Bruins (1) vs Florida Panthers (WC2)
Prediction: BOS
Game 1 Win Probability
BOS: 75.8%
FLA: 24.2%
The home team took each game when these two teams met and despite being underdogs in in their home games, Florida has shown their ability to skae with a very strong Bruins team.
Date
Home Team
Away Team
Final Score
Win Probabilities
10-17-2022
BOS
FLA
5:3
66.6% : 33.4%
11-23-2022
FLA
BOS
5:2
40.5% : 59.5%
12-19-2022
BOS
FLA
7:3
62.9% : 37.1%
01-23-2023
FLA
BOS
4:3 (OT)
35.7% : 64.3%
The Florida Panthers have really picked up their game at the end of the season to secure their playoff position. The Bruins, however, are 9-1-0 in their last 10 games, and though they do not need to outshoot their oppenents to win, have done so in 7 of those 10 games.
The Bruins are able to keep their opponents to fewer shots and goals than Florida, as they allow approximately one less goal per game, partially due to Vezina Trophy candidate Linus Ullmark.
Toronto Maple Leafs (2) vs Tampa Bay Lightning (3)
Prediction: TOR
Game 1 Win Probability
TOR: 56.4%
TBL: 43.6%
Though it's never a good idea to count out the Tampa Bay Lightning from a playoff series, their play has declined drastically in the later months of the season. As they were playing in top form at the end of December, Toronto was still able to beat them 4-1 in Toronto. Home-ice advantage will play a role here and Toronto has shown their ability to beat the Lightning in either city.
Date
Home Team
Away Team
Final Score
Win Probabilities
12-03-2022
TBL
TOR
4:3 (OT)
49.9% : 50.1%
12-20-2022
TOR
TBL
4:1
49.2% : 50.8%
04-11-2023
TBL
TOR
3:4
46.6% : 53.4%
The clear picture from this matchup is that both teams are extremely hard to play against. While Toronto players slightly edge Tampa players in faceoff percentages, all of the players are above 50% on the regular season.
It's clear that these teams have strong and even scoring capabilities as they have been extremely close in Average Goals per Game most of the season. Similarly, each team has superstar power in their top scorers, like Steven Stamkos (33 G/51 A), Nikita Kucherov (30 G/81 A), Brayden Point (51 G/44 A), Auston Matthews (40 G/45 A), John Tavares (36 G/44 A) and Mitch Marner (30 G/69 A)
Carolina Hurricanes (1) vs New York Islanders (WC1)
Prediction: NYI
Game 1 Win Probability
CAR: 60.1%
NYI: 39.9%
The Islanders are going into the playoffs with some momentum as they fought to win 3 of their final 4 games in order to lock in a playoff spot over Pittsburgh.
Date
Home Team
Away Team
Final Score
Win Probabilities
10-28-2022
CAR
NYI
2:6
54.9% : 45.1%
12-10-2022
NYI
CAR
0:3
53.2% : 46.8%
01-21-2023
NYI
CAR
2:5
44.1% : 55.9%
04-02-2023
CAR
NYI
2:1
60.7% : 39.3%
The Canes are known for not allowing many chances from other teams, but they rank 3rd in the League in SOG per Game and are able to secure wins they outshoot their opponents thanks to a high-pressure defensive system.
The #Canes are 3rd in the league in SOG per Game (34.78) and 1st in SOG Against per Game (25.99), as they outshot the #Isles 3/4 matchups
While the Isles were able to beat the Canes twice this season, it is going to be a battle against a Carolina team that does not allow many shot attempts. What the Isles lack in defense for Goals Against per Game they make up for in goaltending. Ilya Sorokin's 2.34 GAA and .924 Save Percentage has held the Islanders in many games and led to many wins.
New Jersey Devils (2) vs New York Rangers (3)
Prediction: NYR
Game 1 Win Probability
NJD: 62.0%
NYR: 38.0%
The Devils have won 3 of 4 matchups vs the Rangers this season, and were favored in all but the final game. All of the games, though, were close games and 2 required a fourth period
Date
Home Team
Away Team
Final Score
Win Probabilities
11-28-2022
NYR
NJD
3:5
40.0% : 60.0%
12-12-2022
NYR
NJD
4:3 (OT)
42.9% : 57.1%
01-07-2023
NJD
NYR
4:3 (OT)
52.2% : 47.8%
01-23-2023
NJD
NYR
2:1
49.1% : 50.9%
After a slow start to the season, the Rangers have caught up to the Devils' ability to win games as the Rangers' rating has trended up since December (around the time of Jacob Trouba's famous helment toss)
The Devils outshot the Rangers in 3 of the 4 games this season, and as a whole, the Devils were 35-16-6 when they outshot their opponents.
Even though the Rangers average fewer SOG per Game than the Devils, the Rangers 20-6-10 when they are outshot.
Nico Hischier was a problem for the Rangers at the faceoff circle this season, as his faceoff percentage was greater than 50% in 3 matchups. For players with greater than 500 faceoffs, Michael McLeod (60.9%) and Vincent Trocheck (56.4) lead each side
The #NYR will be facing a #NJDevils team that averaged 34.4 SOG For per Game this season, 4th in the NHL. The Rangers have been able to hold teams to less SOG recently and the Rangers held the Devils to 31 SOG on 3/30 (though the Rangers lost and they only had 25 SOG For) pic.twitter.com/JQc8x2ZXA4
