94 Morning Report: October 26th, 2023
Capitals defeat the Devils in New Jersey for an upset win, plus teams are back in action tonight and game previews for the Stars vs Leafs and Hurricanes vs Kraken!
Latest stats and analytics updates from games played as of 10/25/23
Results
| Home | Away | Score | Matchup Probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| New Jersey Devils | Washington Capitals | 4:6 | 66.8% : 33.2% |
Last Night Highlights
- Tyler Toffoli stayed hot last night with 2 goals on 2 SOG and an added an assist despite falling short to the Capitals
- Dylan Strome scored twice for his 3rd and 4th goals of the season
- Anthony Mantha played just 13 minutes even strength but scored a goal with 3 SOG to lead the game with 13.5 Even Strength SOG/60 and 4th in the game with 9.0 Even Strength Points per 60.
- The Capitals blocked 24 of the Devils' 58 shot attempts, allowing just 22 SOG. Despite getting in front of shots, the Capitals are now 3rd in the league in Goals Against after allowing 4 by New Jersey
Tonight's Matchups
| Home Team | Home Win Probability | Away Team | Away Win Probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Detroit Red Wings | 57.4% | Winnipeg Jets | 42.6% |
| Carolina Hurricanes | 52.0% | Seattle Kraken | 48.0% |
| Boston Bruins | 78.5% | Anaheim Ducks | 21.5% |
| Pittsburgh Penguins | 31.7%% | Colorado Avalanche | 68.3% |
| Tampa Bay Lightning | 68.1% | San Jose Sharks | 31.9% |
| Montreal Canadiens | 54.9% | Columbus Blue Jackets | 45.1% |
| New York Islanders | 51.8% | Ottawa Senators | 48.2% |
| Philadelphia Flyers | 51.7%% | Minnesota Wild | 48.3% |
| Dallas Stars | 59.4% | Toronto Maple Leafs | 40.6% |
| Edmonton Oilers | 43.6% | New York Rangers | 56.4% |
| Calgary Flames | 50.3% | St. Louis Blues | 49.7%% |
Game Previews
Dallas Stars vs Toronto Maple Leafs
The defensively strong Dallas Stars face the scoring power in Auston Matthews and the Toronto Maple Leafs and are favored based on our win probabilities. 32% of the 22 goals the Leafs have scored this season have been on the powerplay (8th in the league), and at a similar rate, Auston Matthews has scored 3 of his 7 total goals on the advantage. But the Stars still have yet to allow a powerplay goal. In fact, they've take the 3rd fewest penalties in the league (20). Since they maintain a pretty solid +5 goal differential (6th in the league), they can capitalize if they stay out of the box.
Carolina Hurricanes vs Seattle Kraken
The Hurricanes (3-4-0) and Kraken (2-4-1) have both been off to subpar starts this season. It's not from a lack of scoring from the Hurricanes as they are 3rd in Goals, 1st in SOG and 1st in Shot Attempts. But because they take so many shot attempts (498), they are 2nd in the league in Percent of Shots Not on Goal (53%). While this may not be a huge factor, it may be leading to chances going the other way. For Seattle, the team will need to rely on stars to get scoring. As mentioned, in previous reports, the Hurricanes allow a lot of goals, and the production Bjorkstrand (4 points), Schwartz (4 points) and Eberle (3 points) need to break higher points per game to catch some momentum.
