94 Morning Report: April 8th, 2023

16 games around the league plus in-depth matchup analysis for the games with wild card implications

Latest stats and analytics updates from games played as of 4/7/23

Original data sourced from mysportsfeeds.com

Win Probabilities for April 8th (16 games):

Home Team Home Win Probability Away Team Away Win Probability
BUF 43.08% CAR 56.92%
DET 55.353% PIT 44.647%
DAL 47.523% VGK 52.477%
SJS 27.394% EDM 72.606%
ARI 55.69% ANA 44.31%
WPJ 51.032% NSH 48.968%
WSH 39.94% FLO 60.06%
TOR 66.938% MTL 33.062%
CBJ 32.866% NYR 67.134%
OTT 47.271% TBL 52.729%
NYI 62.686% PHI 37.314%
MIN 58.966% STL 41.034%
BOS 68.92% NJD 31.08%
VAN 50.191% CGY 49.809%
SEA 68.444% CHI 31.556%
LAK 48.589% COL 51.411%

Eastern Conference Wild Card Race

Project 94 Ratings this Season for New York Islanders, Florida Panthers, Pittsburgh Penguinsc

Florida Panthers (41-31-7)

Points: 89

Games Played: 79

Next Game: April 8th vs Washington Capitals

Win Probability: 60.06%

Last 5 GP Record: 5-0-0

  • The Panthers average 66.5 Shot Attempts For per Game and 36.8 SOG For per Game
  • Washington averages 58.4 Shot Attempts Against per Game and 31 SOG Against per Game
  • Florida averages 3.5 Goals For per Game and are 32-2-5 when they score more than 31.5 goals per game while Washington averages 3 Goals Against per game, but are 3-25-4 when they give up 3.5 goals or more
  • The Panthers are 20-13-3 when they get at least 33.3 SOG, but the Wings are 10-8-4 when they give up 33.3 SOG or more

New York Islanders (40-30-9)

Points: 89

Games Played: 79

Next Game: April 8th vs Philadelphia Flyers

Win Probability: 62.69%

Last 5 GP Record: 3-2-0

Key Highlights

  • The Islanders average 2.94 Goals For per Game and the Flyers average 3.33 Goals Against per Game
  • The Islanders are 32-6-4 when they score 2.94 or Greater goals
  • The Islanders have won 2 of the 3 times the Flyers and Isles have met this season, though they outshout the Flyers only in the most recent game

Pittsburgh Penguins (39-30-10)

Points: 88

Games Played: 79

Next Game: April 8th vs Detroit Red Wings

Win Probability: 44.65%

Last 5 GP Record: 3-2-0

Key Highlights

  • The Penguins average 63.5 Shot Attempts For per Game and 34.4 SOG For per Game
  • Detroit averages 59 Shot Attempts Against per Game and 33.3 SOG Against per Game
  • The Penguins are 20-13-3 when they get at least 33.3 SOG, but the Wings are 10-8-4 when they give up 33.3 SOG or more
  • Despite being outshot in 1 of the 2 games, Detroit has won both matchups vs the Penguins this season

Western Conference Wild Card Race

Winnipeg Jets (43-32-3)

Points: 89

Games Played: 78

Next Game: April 8th vs Nashville Predators

Win Probability: 51.03%

Last 5 GP Record: 2-3-0

Key Highlights

  • The Predators give up ~4 penalties per game and the Jets have a 19.4 Power Play Percentage
    • When the Jets have 4 or more powerplays in a game, ther are 19-9-1
  • The Jets average 38-4-1 when they reach their average Goals For per Game of 2.99 goals
  • The Jets give up 6.5 less Shot Attempts per Game than the Predators
  • On average, the Predators have ~3.5 less SOG per Game than they're opponent and the Jets are 22-13-1 when they get more SOG than they're opponent

Calgary Flames (37-27-15)

Points: 89

Games Played: 79

Next Game: April 8th vs Vancouver Canucks

Win Probability: 49.81%

Last 5 GP Record: 4-1-0

Key Highlights

  • The Flames generate ~11 more Shot Sttempts per Game than the Canucks and around 6 more SOG per Game
    • When the Canucks give up more 35 SOG per Game (Flames average 35.6), they are 13-10-2
  • While still above 3.5 Goals per Game, Vancouver has improved their defense throughout the season, decreasing their Goals Against per Game Rate
  • The Flames have won 2 of the 3 matchups this season (1 win in regulation and 1 in OT), and 2 of the 3 games have required overtime or a shootout
    • The Flames are 7-18 when games have gone to overtime or a shootout
    • The Canucks are 12-9 when games have gone to overtime or a shootout

Nashville Predators (40-30-8)

Points: 88

Games Played: 78

Next Game: April 8th vs Winnipeg Jets

Win Probability: 48.97%

Last 5 GP Record: 3-2-0

Key Highlights

  • The Predators have decreased their Shot Attempts per Game throughout the Season, but are still 23-17-6 when they are outshot
  • Juuse Saros is 31-22 this season with an overall .918 save percentage but a save percentage of .8998 and a record of 12-8-2 when the Predators are outshot
  • Nashville is 7-1-2 when they give up their opponets 1 powerplay or less

100 Point Watch

Player Team Games Played Goals Assists Points
Mikko Rantanen COL 77 52 46 98
Elias Pettersson VAN 76 37 61 98
Erik Karlsson SJS 76 23 75 98
Mitch Marner TOR 76 28 67 95
Jack Hughes NJD 75 42 53 95
Tage Thompson BUF 74 45 47 92
Brayden Point TBL 79 48 42 90

Milestone Watch

Player Team Games Played Goals Assists Points
Mikko Rantanen COL 77 52 46 98
Elias Pettersson VAN 76 37 61 98
Erik Karlsson SJS 76 23 75 98
Artemi Panarin NYR 79 26 63 89
Dylan Larkin DET 77 32 46 78
Matthew Tkachuk COL 76 39 66 105
Mika Zibanejad NYR 79 39 48 87
Miro Heiskanen DAL 75 11 58 69
Rasmus Dahlin BUF 73 14 55 69
Anze Kopitar LAK 79 27 42 69

Check out the full season's Scoring Race


Top 5 Teams in the Power Rankings

Top 5 Teams
Team Project 94 Rating 5 Game Trend 5 Game Win%
BOS 782.583 +13.167 80.0% 🔥
EDM 714.005 +16.985 100% 🔥🔥
CAR 713.894 +6.969 60.0%
VGK 710.946 +10.829 60.0%
NJD 709.937 +5.456 80.0% 🔥

Follow Project 94 on Twitter to get the latest stats and charts throughout the day and pregame


Disclaimer: Win probabilities and abstract analyses are predictions of future games and interpretations of historical events and should not be used as definitive outcomes for future games or events

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